Author information

¹Medicus Economics, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

²Formerly of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

³Pine Mountain Consulting, Redding, Connecticut, United States of America.

Abstract

Background: NASH is considered a contributor to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk; however, its contribution beyond traditional risk factors for CVD, particularly diabetes, is less clearly understood. This study aimed to quantify the cardiovascular-event risk associated with NASH, independent of diabetes status.

Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using the 2017-2020 NHANES pre-pandemic cycle. NASH was defined based on presence of steatosis without other causes of liver disease, and FibroScan+AST score from vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). Significant fibrosis (stages F2-F4) was identified by liver stiffness measurement from VCTE. Predicted primary CV-event risk was estimated using both the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). NASH patients were matched with non-NASH controls on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and diabetes status. Weighted logistic regression was conducted, modeling elevated predicted CV risk (binary) as the dependent variable and indicators for NASH / fibrosis stages as independent variables.

Results: A sample of 125 NASH patients was matched with 2585 controls. NASH with significant fibrosis was associated with elevated predicted 10-year CV risk, although this association was only statistically significant in PCE analyses (odds ratio and 95% CI 2.34 [1.25, 4.36]). Analyses restricting to ages <65 years showed similar results, with associations of greater magnitude.

Conclusion: Independent of diabetes, a significant association was observed between NASH with significant liver fibrosis and predicted primary CV-event risk in US adults, particularly for those <65. These findings suggest the importance of accounting for NASH and liver-fibrosis stage in predicting CV-event risk.