Author information

¹National Disease Registration Service, NHS England, Quarry House, Quarry Hill, Leeds, LS2 7UE, UK. anya.burton@bristol.ac.uk.

²Bristol Medical School, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol, BS8 2PS, UK. anya.burton@bristol.ac.uk.

³National Disease Registration Service, NHS England, Quarry House, Quarry Hill, Leeds, LS2 7UE, UK.

⁴Leeds Institute for Medical Research at St. James's, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS9 7TF, UK.

⁵Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.

⁶Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, Denmark Hill, London, SE5 9RS, UK.

⁷Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L7 8XP, UK.

⁸Sheila Sherlock Liver Centre, The Royal Free Hospital, London, NW3 2QG, UK.

Abstract

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has increased rapidly, and prognosis remains poor. We aimed to explore predictors of routes to diagnosis (RtD), and outcomes, in HCC cases.

Methods: HCC cases diagnosed 2006-2017 were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and the RtD metric. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between RtD, diagnosis year, 365-day mortality and receipt of potentially curative treatment.

Results: 23,555 HCC cases were identified; 36.1% via emergency presentation (EP), 30.2% GP referral (GP), 17.1% outpatient referral, 11.0% two-week wait and 4.6% other/unknown routes. Odds of 365-day mortality was >70% lower via GP or OP routes than EP, and odds of curative treatment 3-4 times higher. Further adjustment for cancer/cirrhosis stage attenuated the associations with curative treatment. People who were older, female, had alcohol-related liver disease, or were more deprived, were at increased risk of an EP. Over time, diagnoses via EP decreased, and via GP increased.

Conclusions: HCC RtD is an important predictor of outcomes. Continuing to reduce EP and increase GP and OP presentations, for example by identifying and regularly monitoring patients at higher risk of HCC, may improve stage at diagnosis and survival.